The Bank of Canada just raised interest rates again. What does this mean for newcomers?

02 Feb 2023

加拿大央行刚刚再次加息。这对新人意味着什么？即使经济放缓，加拿大仍在寻找新移民来填补劳动力缺口。 The Bank of Canada just raised interest rates again. What does this mean for newcomers? Even with a slower economy, Canada is still seeking newcomers to fill gaps in the workforce.

加拿大央行 (BoC) 最近宣布再次加息，最高可达 4.5%，或从 2022 年 12 月 7 日的 4.25% 上升 25 个基点。虽然这是过去一年中最小的加息幅度，但利率将在可预见的未来保持高位，使得增加支出比往年更加困难。这对所有加拿大人的日常生活都有影响，包括加拿大的新移民。 The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently announced another rise in interest rates, up to 4.5%, or up 25 basis points from 4.25% on December 7, 2022. While this is the smallest rise in interest over the past year, interest rates will stay high for the foreseeable future making larger spending more difficult than previous years. This has an impact on the day-to-day lives of all Canadians, including Canada’s newest immigrants.

加拿大是全球最稳定的经济体之一，但仍受到国际事件的影响。加拿大央行将石油、天然气和食品价格的急剧上涨归因于需求增加和全球问题，例如俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争。 Canada has one of the most stable economies globally but is still feeling the effects of international events. The BoC credits increased demand and global issues such as Russia’s war in Ukraine for the steep increase in price for oil, gas, and food.

央行表示，加息从长远来看将产生积极影响。事实证明，高利率可以减缓和降低通货膨胀率（商品和服务成本的上涨），去年 6 月达到 8.1% 的高位。 The BoC says that raising the interest rate will have a positive influence in the long term. High interest rates have been proven to slow and decrease the rate of inflation (the rise in the cost of goods and services), which reached a high of 8.1% last June.

此后，通胀率已降至 6.9%，但距离 2% 的目标仍有很长的路要走。随着利率上升和通货膨胀居高不下，新移民常常担心他们将如何在加拿大开始新生活。 Since then, inflation has dropped to 6.9% but still has a long way to go to reach the target of 2%. As interest rates rise and inflation remains high, newcomers often have concerns regarding how they will start their new lives in Canada.

高利率减缓经济并减少需求 High interest rates slow the economy and decrease demand

经济学不是一门精确的科学，但一些策略已被证明对经济有长期的积极影响（同时仍然使消费者暂时更加昂贵）。 Economics is not an exact science, but some tactics have been proven to have long-term positive impacts on the economy (while still making things temporarily more expensive for consumers).

提高利率通过减少需求来减缓通货膨胀。当加拿大人因为成本更高而花更少的钱时，整体需求就会下降。这种减少使供应商更容易满足需求，而不必提高价格。例如，如果人们减少购买，就会有更多的石油和天然气可供使用，供应商将更有可能降价以清理库存并获利。 Raising the interest rate slows inflation by decreasing demand. When Canadians spend less money because costs are higher, overall demand decreases. This decrease allows suppliers to meet demand more easily, without having to raise prices. For example, there is more oil and gas to go around if people buy less of it and suppliers will be more likely to drop the price to clear the inventory and turn a profit.

该理论认为，一旦油价下跌，在全球范围内运输物品就会变得不那么复杂和昂贵，企业可以降低成本。即使在油价下跌的情况下，鼓励加拿大人减少支出也会产生双重影响，企业需要减少供应，减少支出，从长远来看进一步减少消费者的支出。 The theory is that once oil prices drop, it becomes less complicated and expensive to transport items globally and businesses can reduce costs. Encouraging Canadians to spend less, even as the price of oil drops, has a double impact of businesses needing to have less supply, and spending less money, further reducing expenses for consumers in the long term.

如果需求减少，这对就业率有何影响？ If there is less demand, what does that do to the rate of employment?

加拿大新移民的一大吸引力是高就业率。随着人口老龄化和出生率仍然是全球最低之一，加拿大在多个部门长期存在劳动力短缺问题。 One of the big draws for newcomers to Canada is the high rate of employment. Canada has a chronic shortage of labour in several sectors as the population ages and the birth rate remains one of the lowest globally.

作为回应，加拿大于去年 11 月发布了其最雄心勃勃的移民水平计划，目标是到 2025 年每年接纳 500,000 名新永久居民。这是因为加拿大在医疗保健、建筑和专业等多个领域的职位空缺率仍然很高和科学服务。加拿大统计局的最新数据显示，这些行业对员工的需求超过了填补职位空缺的速度。 In response, Canada released its most ambitious Immigration Levels Plan last November, with a target of admitting 500,000 new permanent residents per year by 2025. This is because Canada still has a high rate of job vacancies in several sectors such as healthcare, construction and professional and scientific services. The latest data from Statistics Canada shows that demand for employees in these sectors is outpacing the rate at which job vacancies are filled.

去年 11 月，加拿大银行 (BoC) 行长 Tiff Macklem 谈到了继续雇用移民的重要性。 Last November Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, spoke about the importance of continuing to hire immigrants.

“重新平衡供需的[一个]方法是增加工人的供应，”州长麦克勒姆说。 “我们在供应方面能做的越多，我们需要在需求方面做的就越少。预计雇用更多移民将有助于更好地规范高工资，加拿大央行表示这是必须的，因为工资必须放缓才能控制通货膨胀。” “[One] way to rebalance supply and demand is to increase the supply of workers,” said Governor Macklem. “The more we can do on supply, the less we will need to do on demand. The hiring of more immigrants is expected to help better regulate high wages, which the BoC says is a must because wages will have to slow to get inflation under control.”

提高利率和放缓经济增长，为企业提供了增加供应的机会。在许多情况下，这只能通过增加劳动力来实现。如果没有足够的工人在利率和通胀再次下降时创造足够的供应来满足需求，那么该国可能会发现自己又回到了起点。 Raising interest rates, and slowing economic growth, gives businesses a chance to increase supply. In many instances, this can only be done through an increase in the labour force. If there are not sufficient workers to create enough supply to meet demand when interest rates and inflation drop again, the country could find itself right back where it started.

这会让在加拿大买房变得更加困难吗？ Will this make it more difficult to buy a home in Canada?

加拿大目前缺乏负担得起的住宅。更高的利率意味着从银行借钱的成本更高，抵押贷款变得更昂贵，任何一种银行贷款都会花费更多。 Canada currently has a shortage of affordable, residential housing. A higher interest rate means it is more expensive to borrow money from the bank, mortgages become more expensive, and any kind of bank loan will cost more.

同样，这旨在减缓房屋购买速度，让市场有时间重建供应，或者在这种情况下建造更多住房。简而言之，新永久居民和加拿大人仍然可以买房，但会更贵。 Again, this is designed to slow down the rate at which homes are purchased, giving the market time to rebuild supply, or in this instance, build more housing. In short, it will still be possible for new permanent residents and Canadians to buy homes, but it will be more expensive.

加拿大最近还推出了一项旨在增加住房供应的新措施。根据新法案，只有加拿大公民和永久居民可以在 2025 年之前购买房屋。临时居民可能仍然可以在加拿大购买房屋，但附加的一些条件可能会使其变得更加困难。 Canada also recently introduced a new measure that aims to increase the supply of housing. Under the new Act, only Canadian citizens and permanent residents will be permitted to buy homes until 2025. Temporary residents may still be able to buy a house in Canada, but there are several conditions attached that can make it much more difficult.

对生活成本的影响 Impact on the cost of living

移民加拿大很贵。在支付了所有的申请费和差旅费后，寻找住宿、当地交通甚至杂货的费用可能比新移民习惯的要贵，这可能会让他们感到震惊。 Immigrating to Canada is expensive. After paying all the application and travel fees, the cost of finding accommodation, local transportation and even groceries can be more expensive than newcomers are accustomed to and that can come as a shock.

移民可能会以租房者的身份开始他们在加拿大的生活。加拿大目前的租金是自 COVID-19 以来最高的，加拿大的平均租金为每月 2,048 美元，比大流行前高出 12% 以上。随着利率上升和抵押贷款变得更加昂贵，房东继续增加租金以支付他们自己的成本。 Immigrants will likely start their time in Canada as renters. Canada is currently living with the highest rents since COVID-19, with the average rental cost in Canada at $2,048 a month, over 12% more than before the pandemic. As interest rates rise and mortgages are more expensive, landlords are continuing to increase rents to cover their own costs.

此外，从 2021 年到 2022 年，食品价格平均上涨 11%。到 2023 年，加拿大平均四口之家的食品支出预计为 16,288 加元。 Additionally, between 2021-2022, the price of food rose 11% on average. The average four-person household in Canada can now expect to spend $16,288 on food in 2023.

带走 Take away

加拿大央行表示，加拿大目前正处于温和衰退之中，这种衰退将持续到 2023 年。预计 GDP 增长将从 2022 年的 3.6% 放缓至 2023 年的 1%。 The BoC says that Canada is now in a mild recession that will last through 2023. It is expected that GDP growth will slow and decrease from 3.6% in 2022 to just 1% through 2023.

经济学家预计通货膨胀率到 2024 年将降至 2% 的目标，到今年年中将降至 3%。目前尚不清楚利率何时会下降，但加拿大央行预计在不久的将来不会有任何额外的加息。尽管如此，他们仍准备在必要时提高利率以对抗通胀，这将进一步限制支出能力。 Economists see the rate of inflation coming down to the targeted 2% by 2024 and a drop to 3% by the middle of this year. It is not clear when the interest rate will decrease but the BoC expects that it will not see any additional rises in the immediate future. That said, they are still prepared to increase rates if necessary to combat inflation which will further restrict spending ability.

短期内，加拿大可以预期通货膨胀率将保持在 5% 左右的高位，并且房屋、租金和杂货价格不会有任何显着下降。尽管如此，加拿大央行经济学家认为核心通胀已经见顶，2024 年 GDP 将略有增长。再加上通货膨胀率较低导致物价下降，新移民和加拿大人的经济状况将比今年强。 In the short term, Canada can expect inflation to remain elevated, around 5%, and there will not be any significant decrease in the price of homes, rent and groceries. Still, BoC economists believe that core inflation has peaked and 2024 will see a slight growth in GDP. Combined with lower prices due to less inflation, newcomers and Canadians will be in a stronger economic position than they are this year.

FCGvisa translated, © CIC News All Rights Reserved.