Report: High immigration targets likely to benefit western provinces

15 Feb 2023

报告：高移民目标可能使西部省份受益 Desjardins 的一份新报告表明，大草原地区今年将从加拿大各地的移民中获得经济收益。 Report: High immigration targets likely to benefit western provinces A new report by Desjardins suggests that the Prairies will experience economic gains from immigration across Canada this year.

Desjardins 最近的一份经济报告显示，加拿大增加移民目标可能会对各省经济产生积极影响，尤其是在西部省份。 A recent economic report by Desjardins shows that Canada’s increased immigration targets are likely to have a positive impact on provincial economies, particularly in the western provinces.

自 2015 年以来，移民在净新增职位上的增长一直超过加拿大出生的工人，占就业增长的 70%。事实上，到 2019 年，几乎每个省的新移民就业率都高于加拿大出生的工人。 Since 2015, immigrants have consistently outpaced Canadian-born workers in net new positions, accounting for 70% of employment gains. In fact, by 2019, employment rates for new immigrants were higher than Canadian-born workers in nearly every province.

这些收益并未受到 COVID-19 大流行的强烈影响。在此期间，新移民的就业激增，帮助缩小了新移民与加拿大出生工人失业率之间的差距，2022 年新移民失业率分别为 5.3% 和 5%。 These gains were not strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, there was a surge of employment among new immigrants that helped close the gap between the unemployment rate of new immigrants and Canadian-born workers, which stood at 5.3% vs 5%, in 2022.

考虑到明年经济放缓的预期，该报告称，在即将到来的经济衰退和最终的复苏期间，加拿大不同地区的新移民可能会产生广泛的经济成果。加拿大央行预计 2023 年全国 GDP 增长率仅为 1%，而 2022 年全年的增长率为 3.6%。 Considering the economic slowdown expected over the coming year, the report says there are potentially wide-ranging economic outcomes for newcomers in different parts of Canada, both during the coming downturn and in the eventual recovery. The Bank of Canada expects national GDP growth of just 1% over 2023, as opposed to the 3.6% seen throughout 2022.

###哪些省份正在从移民中受益？ Which provinces are benefitting from immigration?

该报告根据与移民水平计划相关的因素平衡了各个省份的经济成果。例如，它对全省经济做出了预测，包括未来三年移民的高目标、每个省份新移民的平均定居百分比，以及移民在不同时期如何融入经济，包括前大流行和当今。 The report balanced economic outcomes for individual provinces based on factors relative to the Immigration Levels Plan. For example, it made projections on the province’s economies with variations on the high targets of the immigration for the next three years, the average percentage of newcomers who settle in each province, and how immigrants integrated into the economy over various times periods including pre-pandemic and present-day.

该报告显示，如果当前的移民趋势保持一致，则来自更高国家移民目标的最大移民相关经济收益将发生在不列颠哥伦比亚省、草原省和爱德华王子岛 (PEI)。 PEI 是加拿大各省中人均移民人数最多的省份。 The report shows that, if current immigration trends remain consistent, the biggest immigration-related economic gain from higher national immigration targets will occur in provinces will occur in British Columbia, the Prairie Provinces, and Prince Edward Island (PEI). PEI admits the highest number of immigrants per capita of any Canadian province.

此外，如果艾伯塔省、曼尼托巴省和萨斯喀彻温省能够吸引更多的新移民，这些省份的 GDP 将大幅增长 0.3 至 0.6 个百分点。他们可以通过创造更强大的经济条件和更好的负担能力来在未来几年吸引更多的新移民来做到这一点。 Further, if Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan can attract a higher number of newcomers, these provinces would experience a significant boost of between 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points to their GDP. They can do this by creating stronger economic conditions and better affordability to attract a higher share of newcomers in the next few years.

就业岗位多、就业率高的省份是吸引和留住移民的首要因素。话虽如此，就业率的提高本身并不会对一个省的 GDP 产生重大影响。 A province with more jobs and a higher rate of employment is a primary factor in attracting and retaining immigrants. That being said, an increased rate of employment on its own does not have a significant effect on a province’s GDP.

如果新移民长期融入社区并通过参与日常消费为当地经济做出贡献，移民只会加强省经济。当一个省的移民摄入量占现有人口的足够大的比例并且他们可以很容易地融入劳动力市场时，移民对经济的潜在贡献就会更高。 Immigration will only strengthen the provincial economy if newcomers settle into a community long-term and contribute to the local economy by participating in day-to-day spending. There is higher potential economic contribution due to immigration when a province’s immigrant intake makes up a large enough share of the existing population and they can easily integrate into the labour market.

由于联邦政策，最近的移民表现良好 Recent immigrants doing well because of federal policy

经济学家将近期移民强劲的劳动力市场表现归功于联邦政策。在大流行期间，联邦政府通过邀请更多的临时外国工人和国际学生来增加加拿大永久居民的数量。这意味着许多新的永久居民已经在加拿大居住并拥有加拿大工作经验，这使他们更容易融入并进入劳动力市场。 Economists credit the strong labour market performance of recent immigrants to federal policy. During the pandemic, the federal government increased the number of permanent residents in Canada by inviting more temporary foreign workers and international students. This means that many new permanent residents were already living in Canada and had Canadian work experience, making it much easier for them to integrate and enter the labour force.

该报告还说，人口较多的省份（以石油消费量衡量）在 2020 年伊始经济势头增强，劳动力市场趋紧，这意味着在大流行期间劳动力短缺更加严重，似乎促使许多公司雇用新来者。 The report also says provinces with larger populations (measured in terms of oil-consumption) began 2020 with more economic momentum and tighter labour markets, which meant more labour shortages during the pandemic and appears to have prompted many firms to hire recent newcomers.

带走 Take away

该报告的结论是，移民目标本身虽然可能对加拿大经济有帮助，但不足以确保加拿大获得显着的经济收益。它建议加拿大继续强调邀请具有所需技能的移民。 The report concludes that immigration targets alone, while potentially helpful to the Canadian economy, are not enough to ensure Canada sees significant economic gains. It recommends that Canada continues to emphasize inviting immigrants with in-demand skill sets.

加拿大新移民有超过 100 条经济移民途径。他们中的许多人都在省提名计划 (PNP) 之内。根据 PNP，每个省和地区（魁北克和努纳武特除外）都可以选择具备有利于当地经济的技能的候选人。这些计划通常会向可以帮助解决当地劳动力短缺问题的候选人发出邀请，例如技术、技术行业或医疗保健领域的人才。 There are over 100 economic immigration pathways for newcomers to Canada. Many of them are within the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). Under the PNP, each province and territory (except Quebec and Nunavut) can select candidates with skills that will benefit the local economy. These programs often issue invitations to candidates who can help combat local labour shortages such as those in tech, skilled trades, or healthcare.

还有各种针对加拿大更广泛地区的移民计划，例如大西洋移民计划和农村和北部移民试点计划。根据这些计划，求职者会得到雇主的大力支持，例如定居服务和获得医疗保健的机会。 There are also a variety of immigration programs that target broader regions in Canada, such as the Atlantic Immigration Program and the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot Program. Under these programs, candidates are offered significant support from their employers such as settlement services and access to healthcare.

FCGvisa translated, © CIC News All Rights Reserved.