Higher immigration levels in Canada require a boost in home building to keep up with demand

23 Feb 2023

加拿大更高的移民水平需要推动房屋建设，以满足 Desjardins 关于移民将如何影响加拿大房地产市场的报告的需求。 Higher immigration levels in Canada require a boost in home building to keep up with demand Desjardins’ reports on how immigration will affect the Canadian housing market.

Desjardins 发布了一份报告，分析了联邦政府增加移民目标对经济的影响。 Desjardins has released a report analyzing the economic impacts of the federal government’s increased immigration targets.

研究发现，大规模的计划移民将导致国家层面和加拿大所有省份更高的实际 GDP 增长。因此，根据该报告，移民的增加将影响加拿大的住房市场，可能会使住房供应不足以防止房价上涨，从而影响全国的住房负担能力。 The study finds that the large scale of planned immigration will lead to higher real GDP growth at the national level and in all Canadian provinces. Consequently, according to the report, increased immigration will affect Canada’s housing market by likely making the supply of housing insufficient for preventing an increase in housing prices, therefore compromising housing affordability across the country.

从历史上看，很大一部分移民定居在安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省，那里的住房负担能力已经成为一个问题，甚至在 COVID-19 大流行之前。 Desjardins 的分析表明，移民增加可能会推高房价并进一步削弱这些省份的负担能力。 Historically, a large portion of immigrants have settled in Ontario and British Columbia, where housing affordability has already been a concern, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Desjardins’ analysis shows that increased immigration is likely to boost housing prices and further erode affordability in those provinces.

该报告还指出，草原省份（阿尔伯塔省、曼尼托巴省和萨斯喀彻温省）历来在融合移民方面取得了最大的成功。这些省份通常拥有加拿大最负担得起的住房市场，预计到 2024 年底，负担能力的增加将超过加拿大其他地区。Desjardins 的报告表明，如果更大比例的移民定居在草原省份，这将减轻已经成为问题的地区的房价和负担能力的压力。此外，如果选择在草原省份定居的移民人数恢复到 2016 年的水平，房价下跌可能会抵消移民增加带来的上涨效应。 The report also notes that the Prairie provinces (Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) have historically had the most success with integrating immigrants. These provinces typically have the most affordable housing markets in Canada and are expected to see affordability increase more than in other parts of Canada by the end of 2024. Desjardins’ report suggests that if a greater share of immigrants were to settle in the Prairie provinces, it would put less pressure on housing prices and affordability in regions where this is already a concern. Further, if the number of immigrants choosing to settle in the Prairie provinces returned to its 2016 numbers, the decrease in home prices could offset the upward effect caused by an increase in immigration.

您可以在此处阅读有关加拿大移民目标和数据的更多信息。 You can read more about Canada’s immigration targets and data here.

推动住宅建设 Boost in home building

无论新移民决定在哪里定居，加拿大各地建造房屋数量的增加都可以抵消更高水平的移民对房价的影响。事实上，Desjardins 报告的估计表明，加拿大的住房建设数量必须立即增加近 50%，并在 2024 年之前保持在该水平，以抵消移民激增导致的价格上涨。 The impact of higher levels of immigration on housing prices can be offset by an increase in the number of homes built across Canada, regardless of where newcomers decide to settle. In fact, estimates from the Desjardins report suggest that the number of housing builds would have to increase immediately by almost 50% across Canada and remain at that level through 2024 to offset the price increase caused by the surge in immigration.

住房开发增加 50% 相当于在 2023 年和 2024 年每年新建约 100,000 套房屋，这将是加拿大历史上最高的住房建设水平。 A 50% increase in housing developments is equivalent to about 100,000 more homes being built annually in 2023 and 2024, which would be the highest level of housing builds in Canadian history.

增加加拿大新移民的好处 The benefit of increased newcomers to Canada

Desjardins表示，虽然新移民的增加可能会推高房价，但这不应该成为抑制移民的理由。相反，它应该成为减少加拿大建造更多住房能力障碍的催化剂。 According to Desjardins, while the increase in newcomers is likely to increase housing prices, it should not be a reason to curb immigration. Instead, it should be a catalyst to reduce barriers to Canada’s ability to build more housing.

报告最后讨论了为什么移民对加拿大经济做出了巨大贡献。随着加拿大自然人口的老龄化，通过移民将年轻、有能力的工人加入加拿大劳动力队伍至关重要。 Desjardins 指出，拒绝年轻的技术工人移民加拿大，而不是真正解决这个国家缺乏可用住房的问题，最终将对加拿大的经济和社会造成损害。 The report concludes by discussing why immigrants greatly contribute to the Canadian economy. As Canada’s natural population is aging, it is vital to add young, capable workers to the Canadian labour force through immigration. Desjardins notes that turning away young, skilled workers from immigrating to Canada rather than truly addressing this country’s issues with a lack of available housing would ultimately work to Canada’s economic and social detriment.

正如 Desjardins 本身的报告所述，“移民对加拿大经济的贡献远远超过他们对房地产市场的影响。” As stated by the report from Desjardins itself, “the contribution of immigrants to the Canadian economy well outweighs their impact on the housing market.”

FCGvisa translated, © CIC News All Rights Reserved.