Why birth rates are low in Canada and much of the Western world

08 Feb 2023

为什么加拿大和西方世界大部分地区的出生率较低 随着时间的推移，加拿大和西方世界的许多国家的生育率都在下降。我们探讨了为什么会出现这种情况，以及全球生育率下降的结果。 Why birth rates are low in Canada and much of the Western world Canada and many countries in the Western world are having fewer children over time. We explore why this is the case and what has resulted from this declining global fertility.

西方世界大部分地区的出生率都很低。 Birth rates are low in much of the western world.

例如，在美利坚合众国，过去 15 年来“[全国] 出生率下降了 20%”。在其他地方，自 2008 年以来，希腊的出生率下降了 30%。 For instance, in the United States of America, “the [national] birth rate has fallen by 20%” over the last 15 years. Elsewhere, Greece has seen a 30% decline in births since 2008.

加拿大也有类似情况。加拿大的生育率目前低于全球人口更替水平，即每位妇女生育 2.1 胎。继 2009 年以来持续的稳步下降趋势之后，加拿大的生育率在 2020 年创下了每名妇女生育 1.4 个孩子的历史新低。2020 年，加拿大也经历了该国 15 年来最低的出生人数，同时也出现了最大的年度分娩降幅(-3.6%) 在四分之一个世纪内。 Canada is in a similar situation. Canada’s fertility rate currently falls short of the global population replacement level, which stands at 2.1 births per woman. Following a steadily declining trend that has continued since 2009, Canada’s fertility rate hit a record low of 1.4 children per woman in 2020. In 2020, Canada also experienced the country’s lowest number of births in 15 years, also seeing the largest annual drop in childbirths (-3.6%) in a quarter of a century.

为什么西方国家的出生率下降了？ Why has the birth rate declined in Western countries?

生育率下降不能完全归因于任何单一因素，因为生育或不生育的原因因生育者而异。然而，据说西方世界的一些趋势对出生儿童数量的减少产生了重大影响。 Declining birth rates cannot be firmly attributed to any single factor, as the reason for having or not having a child/children is individual to the child-bearer. However, a few trends in the Western world have been said to have a potent impact on the reduced number of children being born.

###养孩子越来越贵 Raising children is becoming more expensive

凡事都要钱，养孩子也不例外。在孩子生命的头 18 年里，父母必须为他们的后代提供必需品，同时还要支付孩子成长所需的教育和其他关键服务费用，让他们过上幸福的童年。 Everything costs money, and raising a child is no different. For the first 18 years of a child’s life, parents are required to provide the necessities for their offspring, all the while paying for education and other key services that their child needs to grow up living a prosperous childhood.

因此，随着养育孩子的成本持续上升——据报道，与 2017 年相比，在美国有两个孩子的中等收入已婚家庭需要多花 26,000 多美元，“才能将孩子养到 17 岁”——更少人们选择生孩子，整个西方世界的出生率都在下降。 Consequently, as the cost of raising a child continues to rise – reportedly requiring a middle-income married family with two children in the U.S. to spend over $26,000 more, compared to 2017, “to raise a child to the age of 17” — fewer people are opting to have children and birth rates across the Western world are declining.

注：在加拿大，自 2015 年以来，将孩子抚养至 18 岁的成本上涨了 11%（约合 27,000 美元） Note: In Canada, the cost of raising a child to the age of 18 has risen by 11% (roughly $27,000) since 2015

女性受教育程度更高 Women are more educated

在过去的 40 年里，西方世界的女性接受的教育水平高于前几代人。相应地，西方女性的社会权力越来越大，而这种权力的增加导致生育率开始呈下降趋势。 Over the past 40 years, women in the Western world have had higher levels of education than previous generations. Accordingly, Western women are becoming more socially empowered, and this increased empowerment has caused fertility rates to start trending downward.

与 COVID 相关的经济不确定性 COVID-related economic uncertainty

COVID-19 大流行一直是世界上许多人经济担忧的一个重要来源，大流行带来的经济不确定性已经改变了西方许多人与分娩相关的意图。 The COVID-19 pandemic has been a potent source of economic worry for many people around the world and the economic uncertainty that has arisen as a product of the pandemic has altered childbirth-related intentions for many in the West.

例如在加拿大，加拿大统计局于 2021 年 12 月发布的一份报告显示，许多 15 至 49 岁的加拿大人因大流行而改变了生育计划。 In Canada, for example, Statistics Canada released a report in December 2021 that revealed many Canadians aged 15 to 49 have had a change of heart regarding their plans to have children because of the pandemic.

根据该报告，14.3% 的参与者对“我现在想比以前计划晚生孩子”的陈述回答“正确”。此外，另有 10.9% 的受访者对以下陈述回答“正确”：“我现在想要的孩子比我以前计划的要少。” According to the report, 14.3% of participants responded “true” to a statement that read “I now want to have a baby later than I previously planned”. Additionally, another 10.9% of survey respondents responded “true” to the following statement: “I now want to have fewer children than I previously planned.”

结果：加拿大的低出生率是怎么回事？ Result: What has come of Canada’s low birth rate?

从加拿大的角度来看，较低的出生率直接导致了该国移民的增加，这在很大程度上是出于支持人口和劳动力增长以及经济发展的需要。 From a Canadian perspective, a lower birth rate has contributed directly to the rise of immigration in this country, largely out of the necessity to support population and labour force growth, along with economic development.

低生育率一直是导致全国人口劳动力减少的一个原因，因为为取代加拿大人口老龄化成员而出生的孩子越来越少——无论是总体上还是加拿大劳动力中的孩子。适当地，移民一直被用来对抗这种下降，这一策略迄今为止一直对加拿大有利。 Low fertility rates have been a contributor to a reduction in the national population workforce, as there are fewer children being born to replace aging members of Canada’s population — both generally and those within the labour force in this country. Appropriately, immigration has been relied on to combat this decline, a strategy that has been working in Canada’s favour to date.

事实上，2016 年至 2021 年间，加拿大近五分之四的人口增长（+180 万）是临时和/或永久居民来到加拿大的结果。此外，这种人口增长使加拿大的劳动力得以增长和繁荣，因为在同一五年期间，加拿大移民也是该国 79.9% 劳动力增长的来源。最后，这个国家的经济发展一直受到人口增长的推动，这主要归因于移民。由于移民增加，加拿大人越来越多，因此会有更多人向政府纳税。最终，这将有助于增加政府可用于向加拿大人民提供关键服务和福利的资源和可用资金池，从而促进全国的增长和经济发展。 In fact, almost four-fifths of Canada’s population growth between 2016 and 2021 (+1.8 million) was a result of incoming temporary and/or permanent residents coming to Canada. Moreover, this population growth has allowed Canada’s labour force to grow and prosper, as Canadian immigrants have also been the source of 79.9% of workforce growth in this country over the same five-year period. Finally, economic development in this country has been driven by population growth that is largely attributable to immigration. With more people in Canada thanks to heightened immigration, there are more people that will pay taxes to the government. Ultimately, this will contribute to the resources and available pool of money that the government can use to deliver key services and benefits back to the people of Canada, allowing for increased growth and economic development across the country.

总而言之，上述移民增长的原因造就了一个移民占加拿大总人口 23% 的国家（截至 2021 年）。更重要的是，如果当前的全国人口趋势（包括低生育率）在全国继续，到 2041 年这一数字预计将下降 29.1% 至 34%。 All told, the above-outlined reasons for immigration growth have created a country where immigrants make up 23% of Canada’s total population (as of 2021). What’s more is that this number is projected to fall somewhere between 29.1% and 34% by 2041 if current national demographic trends, including low fertility rates, continue throughout this country.

FCGvisa translated, © CIC News All Rights Reserved.